Only three teams remain with fewer than three league losses, and two of them meet up tonight in central New York in a game with huge standings implications. Saturday’s other three games involve a cheesesteak watch in effect for the Philadelphia area, a battle of cellar-dwellers with ailing stars in New Jersey, and a game in the Big Apple lacking much in the way of a storyline.
Brown (7-15, 2-5 Ivy) at Columbia (12-9, 3-4 Ivy) – 7:00 pm ET
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A very poor final 10 minutes against Yale cost Columbia a third straight win. Now instead of going into this game looking to get to 5-3 and staying alive as an Ivy dark horse, the Lions need to win just to get back to .500 in the league. Brown comes in playing respectably despite a roster depleted by defections, ineligibility, and injury — yet the Bears are just 1-4 since their big win in New Haven back on January 20. Brown has been having big offensive games the past three Saturdays, so they’ll hope that trend continues this week.
It might come as a surprise to many Ivy fans, but of the two teams, Columbia has been playing at a slower pace, averaging 60.3 possessions per 40 minutes to Brown’s 63.7. Both sides have been struggling defensively in Ivy play, with the Lions ranking fifth in the league at 1.04 points allowed per possession and the Bears just behind them at 1.05. Brown takes a lot of threes (42.9 percent of field goal attempts), and Columbia has been hitting a lot of threes (41.7 percent from outside the arc in Ivy games). Free throws could turn into a deciding factor in this one as the Bears go to the line a ton, averaging a free throw attempt every 3.16 possessions, while the Lions have sent Ivy opponents to the stripe more than anyone not named “Dartmouth.”
Pomeroy says: Brown 57, Columbia 62
Yale (10-10, 6-1 Ivy) at Cornell (12-9, 5-2 Ivy) – 7:00 pm ET
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The third game this year between the three Ivy contenders is going to tell us a lot about how the rest of the season will play out. A Yale win probably means the Bulldogs’ game at Penn the final weekend will have championship implications and leaves Cornell needing a miracle to have a shot at the title this year. However, a victory by the Big Red figures to knock Yale from its perch atop the league and inserts Cornell into the heart of the race. Steve Donahue has won the past two meetings with James Jones in Ithaca, and he’ll need to make it three straight to stay in contention.
These are two teams that have taken on very different personalities so far in Ivy play. Yale’s offense has come alive, ranking just behind Penn at 1.09 points per possession, while Cornell’s defense trails only that of the Quakers at 0.91 points allowed per possession. The Bulldogs are first in free throw frequency by a wide margin, averaging an attempt every 2.56 possessions. However, they’ll be going up against a Big Red defense that allowed a league-best 5.69 possessions per free throw attempt. Cornell enters the game tops in offensive rebounding in Ivy play at 37.8 percent, but Yale is number one in defensive rebounding at 78.0 percent. The Big Red will need to do better than its 26.2-percent Ivy turnover rate to take this one.
Pomeroy says: Yale 63, Cornell 64
Harvard (10-11, 3-4 Ivy) at Penn (13-8, 4-1 Ivy) – 7:00 pm ET
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Harvard may be a little tired after playing two overtimes in a loss at Princeton last night, with all five starters logging 36 or more minutes. Meanwhile, Penn had a chance to rest its starters thanks to a big lead for most of the game against Dartmouth, and only Ibby Jaaber (32 minutes) played more than 27. The Crimson hasn’t won at The Palestra since February 1, 1991, and Frank Sullivan is 0-15 in his career at Penn — and only two of those losses have been by single digits. Ending the league’s longest Palestra winning streak is a long shot, and Harvard has to find a way to limit the mistakes that lead to easy transition buckets for Penn, and must get a big game from a slumping Jim Goffredo.
If you’re a Penn fan looking for a free meal, this is the game to attend. The Quaker offense leads the league at 1.11 points per possession, while Harvard is dead last defensively, allowing 1.09 points per possession. Combine that with Harvard’s league-leading tempo of 69.5 possessions per 40 minutes and its 24.0-percent turnover rate, and Abner’s would be wise to have some extra employees on alert. The Crimson trails only Cornell in offensive rebounding in Ivy play at 37.7 percent, so the Quakers will need to do a better job on the defensive glass than they did last night against Dartmouth.
Pomeroy says: Harvard 75, Penn 96
Dartmouth (7-13, 2-5 Ivy) at Princeton (10-9, 1-4 Ivy) – 7:30 pm ET
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The loser of this game is going to find itself occupying the bottom spot in the league standings. Dartmouth will be without Leon Pattman for the second straight night, as the Big Green’s leading scorer is back in Hanover with a stomach virus. Following an emotionally draining double-overtime win last night for the team’s first Ivy victory, we’ll find out if Princeton has anything left. Justin Conway and Lincoln Gunn each played all 50 minutes, and Marcus Schroeder saw 44 minutes. Dartmouth needs to avoid a repeat of last night, when it committed a number of unforced errors on offense, throwing the ball into the stands on several occasions. The Tiger offense looked much better against Harvard, and they’ll need another effort like that to climb out of last place.
The 21 turnovers committed against Penn cost Dartmouth its claim to the lowest turnover rate in the league, and they’ll need to be on their toes against a Princeton defense that leads the league by a wide margin in forcing turnovers at 26.0 percent in league games. Both teams rank near the bottom of Division I in rebounding, both are struggling with their outside shooting so far in Ivy play. Princeton will need to get more points inside against Dartmouth, as the Big Green likes extend its defense, leaving the inside vulnerable to backdoor cuts. At the very least, it will be interesting to see whether both defenses’ foul-happy ways trump the offenses’ inability to get to the line.
Pomeroy says: Dartmouth 44, Princeton 50