It was a relatively quiet night for Ivy League teams, with just Brown and Yale in action against Providence and Vermont, respectively. With exam periods on the horizon, the rest of the week’s schedule will be relatively light as well, as Penn (vs. Albany) and Columbia (at Wagner) will be in action tonight before tomorrow night’s rematch between Harvard and Boston College – the lone game on the docket that evening and the last Ivy contest until Saturday.

Dual Second Half Collapses

Through 20 minutes last night, two of the league’s middling teams had posted impressive displays against quality competition. Yale had weathered Vermont’s insanely hot shooting (64 percent EFG) and its own relatively poor shooting by notching 10 second-chance points to the Catamounts’ zero.

But Vermont kept hitting from long range in the second half (5-for-10, 8-for-17 for the game) and turned the second-chance points stat around (Vermont 7, Yale 2 in the second), which completely negated the Bulldogs’ improved 50 percent EFG shooting in the final 20 minutes.

Yale hung close, down just 62-60 with 2:30 to go, but the Catamounts scored the final 10 points of the game, including a mini five-point spurt to push the lead back to a comfortable seven with 1:47 left.

Comparing Yale’s performance versus Vermont with Cornell’s, the only major differences were in defensive EFG percentage and offensive free-throw rates. The Bulldogs allowed the Catamounts to shoot almost 12 percentage points higher than the Big Red permitted and attempted only one free throw for every four field goals whereas Cornell was getting a little more than two free throws for every five.

Brown had Providence on the ropes into the early portion of the second half, as two Matt Mullery free throws knotted the game at 39 with 17:28 to go, but the Friars went on a 22-4 run over the next seven minutes to put the game out of reach.

For the Bears, the first half start was encouraging, especially on the heels of its debacle in Minnesota, where it fell behind 47-10 to open the game. Brown used a 6-for-9 performance from three to trail just 37-33 at the break, but that hot shooting merely masked the ultimate culprit in the loss – the Bears’ inability to keep Providence off the offensive boards.

The Friars reclaimed 47 percent of the rebounds on their offensive end, scoring 24 second-chance points on the game. It was Brown’s worst performance on the defensive glass all year and ruined what had been an otherwise good defensive showing – the Bears held Providence to its third-worst shooting percentage of the season. During that crucial 22-4 second-half run, the Friars had nine offensive rebounds.

Tonight’s The Night

Almost nothing has gone right for Penn thus far this year. It couldn’t manufacture any offense against Penn State, got blown out by Villanova, lost two key pieces to injury and continued to lose despite hanging tough in its last three contests.

Yet, as it stands today, the Quakers are a three-point Sagarin favorite against tonight’s opponent Albany, and that marks possibly the last time that Penn will be favored until mid-February. (The Quakers might be favored over UMBC as well, but at this point that’s basically a pick ’em.)

If Penn can keep Albany off the offensive boards – one of the Quakers’ strengths – the Great Danes should stagnate offensively. On the other end, Penn needs to get to the free throw line as often as possible, though keeping teams away from the stripe is one of Albany’s strengths.

Expect the Quakers to push the tempo to their 70 possession comfort zone, which should indicate a Pomeroy final score of 68-66 Penn.

Foul Smelling Stats

As part of yesterday’s league leader tweets, I neglected to mention one of the more important rates to keep in mind when analyzing a player, primarily on the defensive end. That statistic is fouls committed per 40 minutes, and it’s usually one which is dominated by underclassmen who have yet to learn what they can and cannot get away defensively at the collegiate level.

Here are the current “leaders” (all in fouls per 40 minutes):

Kyle Casey, Harvard, 8.70
Adam Wire, Cornell, 7.43
Zach Finley, Princeton, 6.36
John Daniels, Columbia, 6.10
Conor Turley, Penn, 5.97
Clive Weeden, Dartmouth, 5.81
Matt LaBove, Dartmouth, 5.31
Dee Giger, Harvard, 5.24
Dan Monckton, Penn, 5.22
Nick Lake, Princeton, 5.12

The foul trouble for Casey has been well documented, but as a freshman, it can be expected. The same goes for fellow freshmen Daniels, LaBove, and Giger. The troubling ones are Finley and Lake, who are seniors, with the former being a four-year contributor who has continually had this problem, while the other four – Wire, Turley, Weeden and Monckton – are all juniors.

Fouls comprise a sneaky portion of defensive efficiency, as teams that send opponents to the line too often see their overall defensive rating fall precipitously. For that reason, players who continually foul at a high rate can have an extremely difficult time staying on the floor, regardless of their overall ability.