Thursday, March 20 – 4:55 pm ET
Honda Center – Anaheim
Television: CBS (region by region) – Carter Blackwell (play-by-play) and Jay Bilas (color)
Internet video: March Madness On Demand (free)
Radio: 1160 WPIE (Elmira, NY)
Internet audio: Cornell Redcast

 
The Tale of the Tape (national ranking)

Cornell				Stanford
22-5		W-L		26-7
65		RPI rank		14
105		Sagarin rank		10
132		Pomeroy rank		10
68.9 (101)		Possessions per 40 minutes		64.0 (280)
		Offense
77.1 (33)		Points per game		70.7 (140)
111.3 (28)		Efficiency		1.09 (48)
56.1 (8)		Effective FG percentage		49.8 (171)
40.7 (6)		3-point FG percentage		36.0 (128)
53.4 (22)		2-point FG percentage		48.2 (178)
35.1 (150)		3-point frequency		27.1 (317)
54.2 (183)		Assist percentage		57.2 (119)
19.9 (101)		Turnover percentage		18.6 (46)
29.3 (285)		Rebounding percentage		39.7 (9)
26.1 (149)		Free throw frequency		28.1 (70)
76.3 (11)		Free throw percentage		69.6 (152)
		Defense
68.1 (156)		Points per game		60.6 (18)
0.99 (99)		Efficiency		0.93 (21)
48.6 (115)		Effective FG percentage		44.0 (8)
36.3 (243)		3-point FG percentage		33.5 (81)
45.7 (73)		2-point FG percentage		41.6 (6)
33.7 (148)		3-point frequency		27.0 (9)
54.6 (169)		Assist percentage		45.2 (5)
20.4 (115)		Turnover percentage		17.8 (316)
30.9 (84)		Rebounding percentage		28.6 (23)
35.3 (144)		Free throw frequency		34.0 (120)

 

The breakdown
Style of play
Most college basketball fans picture a slowed-down Princeton attack when they think of Ivy League basketball, but just like last season when Penn face Texas A&M, the Ivy representative will face a slower-paced opponent in the NCAA Tournament. Stanford prefers to slow it down and grind out wins with physicality, while Cornell likes to get up and down the floor a bit more than the average Division I team. In its two games against BCS conference opponents this season, the Big Red hasn’t looked to take the air out of the ball, playing 73 possessions at Syracuse and 74 at Duke, so don’t expect Steve Donahue to pursue that strategy today.

At Cornell’s end
It’s strength against strength when Cornell has the ball, as the Big Red enters the game as one of the best shooting teams in the nation outside the arc, inside the arc, and at the line. Stanford, however, is one of the top defensive teams in the nation, allowing just 0.93 points per possession against a very difficult schedule. The Cardinal has made open looks few and far between for opponents this season, ranking eight in opponent effective field goal percentage at just 44.0 percent. Most troubling for the three-point bombers on the Cornell roster, however, is the fact Stanford opponents get off very few three-point attempts (27.0 percent of all attempts) and don’t have much success on those shots they do get off (33.5 percent). Don’t expect much in the way of inside scoring for the underdogs, with the seven-foot Lopez Twins patrolling the paint in white jerseys. The good news for a Big Red team that has struggled with turnovers at times this season against defensive pressure is that the Cardinal don’t really force many turnovers defensively. In terms of Ivy League defenses, think of Stanford as being very similar to Columbia in mindset, but obviously with much better personnel.

At Stanford’s end
Donahue has to be chiefly concerned with stopping Stanford’s inside scoring attack. The Cardinal relies heavily on its big men for offense, and Cornell’s frontcourt starting tandem of Alex Tyler and Jason Hartford is extremely foul-prone and not very defensive-minded. Jeff Foote is a solid defender, but he’s a 25-minute guy at most, so it’s critical for the Big Red that the starters avoid foul trouble. Keeping Stanford off the offensive glass will be a big challenge for a Cornell team that rebounded very well defensive this season, but it hasn’t faced anyone like the ninth-ranked Cardinal offensive rebounding attack. Trent Johnson’s methodical pace has resulted in very few turnovers (18.6 percent of possession), so the Big Red probably won’t be getting much off of these mistakes or in transition. In addition to the problem of aggregate personal fouls for Cornell, Stanford does a solid job of getting to the line and shoots a respectable percentage there, so avoiding whistles will be key for the team in red.

Stat to watch
Three-point shooting. You can pretty much count on Stanford getting its points inside. What very well could determine whether Cornell has a shot at an upset will be the shots from outside the arc. Cornell needs a hot performance from long range — we’re talking 14 of 26 or something along those lines. Meanwhile, the Big Red needs to make sure that in trying to minimize the damage inside, it doesn’t leave Cardinal perimeter players wide open for easy threes.

How Cornell can win
While the three-point line will play a big role offensively and defensively for Cornell, it also needs to do a number of other things to put itself in a position to win. Keeping Stanford off the offensive boards and preventing second-chance opportunities and easy putbacks should be a major part of the Big Red gameplan. Dealing with the physical play from the Cardinal without fouling will be critical as well, both in terms of avoiding individual foul trouble and keeping the free throw differential in check. If the Cornell offense can free up its outside threats for open looks and the shooters capitalize on these opportunities, the Ivy League will have a shot to grab its first NCAA Tournament win in a decade.

Our call
The game at Duke showed how dangerous Cornell can be to a finesse team without much of interior presence, so it was very disappointing to see the Big Red draw Stanford. It’s asking quite a bit of players like Tyler and Hartford to hold their Cardinal counterparts in check, and Stanford is one of a select number of teams capable of shutting down the Big Red’s inside and outside game. If things break Cornell’s way, this could be a good one. If not, it has 72-58 written all over it.