Princeton Trendspotting

The numbers: 9-9 overall, 0-4 Ivy, 203rd RPI, 207th Sagarin, 239th Pomeroy
The recent results: lost 43-35 at Yale (2/2), lost 63-48 at Brown (2/3)
The upcoming schedule: Harvard (2/9), Dartmouth (2/10), at Penn (2/13)

The wrong kind of history
First came the school’s first-ever losing Ivy League record in 2004-05. Last year brought the NCAA record for single-game offensive futility in the shot clock era with 21 points against Monmouth and the loss to Division III Carnegie Mellon. This season got off a strong start with a 9-4 mark, but following the extremely impressive win over Rice on January 6, a five-game skid has turned all those good vibes bad. Friday’s loss at Yale dropped Princeton to 0-3 in the Ivy League for the first time in program history — a start that would get even worse the next night with an embarrassing 15-point loss at Brown.

Koncz hobbled by stress fracture
One big reason for the Tigers’ struggles is the stress fracture suffered by leading scorer Kyle Koncz at Iona on December 30. Koncz was averaging 11.5 points per game at the time of the injury, and the team’s performance with him hurt has exposed how crucial the junior is to Princeton’s on-court fortunes. Not only is he the team’s best offensive player, but his off-ball defense is a key component of the Tiger matchup zone. Koncz sat out the Seton Hall blowout loss, and he has been limited to 16.8 minutes in the five games he was able to play — and only 7.0 minutes in the two back ends of back-to-back games. His shooting has suffered since the injury, as one of the top three-point threats in the league is just 6 of his last 25 (24.0 percent) from three and hasn’t attempted a two-pointer in calendar year 2007.

One-dimensional offense
After wasting a strong offensive performance on a night when Columbia torched the defense, the Tiger scoring attack has fallen apart. With Koncz hurting, the word is out among opposing coaches: Princeton is having major problems scoring against zone defenses. The Tigers are the most three-point reliant offense in the nation, taking 54.5 percent of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. This is bad news for a team that is a combined 42 of 149 (28.2 percent) from three since Koncz’s injury. Normally Princeton’s offense generates enough layup opportunities that it is among the national leaders in two-point shooting percentage, but this year the Tigers rank 123rd in Division I at an even 50.0 percent. Factor in a below-average free throw rate (4.22 possessions per attempt) and an elevated turnover rate (24.0 percent), and it’s easy to see why the offense is averaging just 0.86 points per possession since the three-point shooting went south six games ago.

Defensive meltdown
Either Koncz’s defensive presence has been greatly missed, or the rest of the league knows how to deal with Princeton’s matchup zone at this point, because the Tiger defense has been getting absolutely torched. Princeton still is generating turnovers during this losing streak (25.4 percent of opponent possessions), but the other side is shooting an amazing 54.6 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from three during this period. The old problem of excessive fouling also has cropped up twice — at Columbia and Brown. The net result? After posting an excellent offensive efficiency of 0.89 in its first 13 games, Princeton has allowed a shockingly poor 1.19 points per possession over its last five contests.

Conway slumping
It might be a lingering effect of the abdominal injury he suffered in Milwaukee back on December 1, but Justin Conway is in a funk. Last year’s Cinderella story picked right up where he left off last March, averaging 9.5 points on 22-for-40 (55.0 percent) shooting in the first six games. But after sitting out two games to heal up, Conway hasn’t been the same, seeing his scoring average dip to 5.4 and his shooting fall off to 20 of 63 (31.7 percent) in the last 10 games. Part of this may be foul trouble, as the senior captain has picked up four or more fouls in 10 of his 16 appearances. However, the better explanation may be all the zone defenses Princeton has been seeing, as these defenses tend to take away the most dangerous part of Conway’s game: the ability to use his quickness to drive past the slower big men guarding him on the perimeter.

Gunn hitting freshman wall?
Lincoln Gunn seemed to be finding his outside stroke, raising his season three-point shooting to 35.3 percent with his breakout 5-for-8 performance from beyond the arc at South Carolina on December 20. However, since then Gunn is just 9 of 33 (27.3 percent) from three, and may be hitting the proverbial freshman mid-season wall. With Koncz hurting, the Tigers desperately need the freshman to act as a zone-buster and consistently hit the open three-pointer.

Larger role for Savage
Koncz’s limited availability has meant more playing time for Noah Savage lately. After playing 31.6 minutes and scoring 10.0 points per game last season, the junior nearly became a forgotten man the first semester. In the first 15 games, he played an average of just 10.9 minutes per contest and scored just 3.3 points per game. However, since the exam break, Savage has been averaging 22.0 minutes and 6.3 points per game. His shooting numbers on the season (24.3 percent from three and 32.8 percent overall) are way below his career numbers, but hopefully the boost in playing time will help Savage recapture his old form.

Team health report
The good news is that Princeton appears to have only one noteworthy injury right now. The bad news is that it happens to be to Koncz, the team’s best offensive and defensive player.

Odds & ends
– Princeton’s rebounding deficiencies were on full display at Brown on Saturday, when the Ivy’s second-worst rebounding team pounded the Tigers on the boards — rebounding at 45.5 percent offensively while holding Princeton to 11.5 percent at its end.

– Freshman point guard Marcus Schroeder has been out on the floor 96.8 percent of the time for the Tigers this year — the highest percentage of team minutes by any player in Division I.

– Gunn, Koncz, and Luke Owings all are tied for the team lead in field goal attempts with 108 each.

– Mike Strittmatter is proving to be a very unconventional big man, as 36 of his 64 field goal attempts have been three-point attempts, and the 6-8 forward has only 22 rebounds through 18 games.

– Edwin Buffmire leads Tigers in free throw attempts with 34 — but the senior guard is shooting just 38.0 percent from the field and has no assists in last five games.

– Zach Finley is shooting a team-high 55.0 percent from the field, but the freshman needs to work on his free throw shooting (33.3 percent, albeit in a very limited sample size) and his passing (seven assists in 225 minutes).

– After five straight road games, Princeton is home for seven of 10 to close the season.

Jake Wilson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Basketball U.

Jake Wilson wrote 754 posts

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