Friday night brings rematch, first Ivy Weekend

Things get going in a serious way tonight in the Ivy League, with the Ps making the first weekend roadtrip of the league schedule to New York to take on the Cs in four very important games. While that’s going on, Dartmouth and Harvard will finish off their travel partner home-and-home series in a televised game in Boston. Here’s what you should know heading into Friday night.

Princeton (9-4) at Columbia (9-5) – 7:00 pm ET
Live stats | Princeton audio | Columbia video | Columbia audio | WKCR audio (free)
The Lions and Tigers open league play with the best records and weakest schedules among Ivy teams, ranking 323rd and 325th, respectively, in strength of schedule. Princeton’s schedule is interesting this year in that Joe Scott did not play the typical bruising schedule against top-flight competition — not a single Top 100 game so far this year — but opted for an easier non-league slate, largely against teams unfamiliar with the Princeton system. The good news for Princeton is that while it hasn’t fared well against Top 150 competition (0-4), the Tigers have cleaned up against teams outside the Top 200, going undefeated in six games against such opponents. Columbia also has gotten fat on weak opposition, with eight of the Lions’ nine victories coming against teams outside the Top 200. Unlike Princeton, however, Columbia has a pair of bad losses (#268 Stony Brook at home, at #296 St. Francis College).

It will be interesting to watch the three-point shooting in this one, as both teams have done a stellar job of guarding the three-poing arc on the season (29.7 percent allowed for Princeton, 30.2 percent allowed for Columbia), while relying heavily on perimeter shooting for offense (37.9-percent shooting for Princeton, 39.2-percent shooting for Columbia). On paper these appear to be two evenly matched sides, with two key exceptions: rebounding and turnovers. The Lions own a big rebounding edge — particularly on the offensive boards (34.0 percent to 24.3 percent). However, while both teams have struggled with turnovers on the season, the Tigers rank seventh in the nation at forcing turnovers at 27.1 percent, while Columbia’s defense is 297th at just 19.2 percent. If neither team is able to break through with its three-point shooting, second-chance points and the turnover differential are the stats to watch tonight.
Pomeroy says: Princeton 48, Columbia 47

Penn (7-6) at Cornell (7-7) – 7:00 pm ET
Gametracker | Penn audio | Cornell video | Cornell audio
Like the other game in the Empire State, this one features teams with similar records, however these marks have come against very different schedules. Penn enters the game having played the 32nd-toughest schedule in the nation, with no losses to teams outside the Top 200. By contrast, Cornell’s schedule ranks 308th and none of the Big Red’s wins have come against teams ranked as high as Penn. (#114 Northwestern is the program’s only Top 200 win.) The one thing Cornell does have going for it is that Penn has played its worst basketball of the season heading into Ivy play, letting the North Carolina game get out of hand late and proving unable to put away a poor Elon squad last time out. For its part, the Big Red has won three straight, though two of the wins are over teams ranked in the 300s and the third is over a Division III opponent.

On paper this looks like it could be a decently competitive game between two offensive-minded squads, but Penn has been a very different team against non-major opponents, holding them to just 0.92 points per possession while putting up 1.17 offensively. Cornell has done a very good job taking care of the ball this season, but it faces as stiff challenge against a Quaker defense that looks to force steals and turn them into points at the other end. Both teams shoot the three-pointer well, but Cornell is much more reliant on its outside shooting. The Big Red will need to make a lot of threes to make up for the fact that its weak offensive rebounding (27.2 percent) probably means it won’t able to exploit Penn’s only visible weakness to this point: defensive rebounding. If Steve Donahue’s squad can avoid costly turnovers and hit its shots, it might be able to keep Penn from getting out and running, which is Cornell’s best shot at the upset.
Pomeroy says: Penn 78, Cornell 71

Dartmouth (6-7, 1-0 Ivy) at Harvard (7-8, 0-1 Ivy) – 7:00 pm ET – YES Network
Live stats | Dartmouth audio | Harvard video | Harvard audio
Both teams will be looking to get to .500 on the season when they meet on the banks of the Charles, but Harvard also will be out for revenge. Last Saturday, Dartmouth rallied from a double-digit second-half deficit to claim an overtime win. The difference for the Big Green in that one was that while Leon Pattman and Brian Cusworth both had big games, the Crimson star had relatively little support from his teammates, whle Alex Barnett’s big second-half was a perfect complement to Pattman. Dartmouth doesn’t have anyone inside to match up with the Harvard seven-footer, while the Crimson doesn’t appear to have any guards capable of holding Pattman in check. The difference tonight may again come down to which team is able to get a major contribution from another source.

Last week’s result was merely a continuation of the recent trend for both teams, as Dartmouth now has won six of seven, while Harvard has dropped four straight. Since Pattman’s return after missing the first month, Dartmouth has improved to average offensively (1.00 points per possession), while playing very good defense (0.93 points per possession). Harvard, conversely, has seen its offense go south of late, and hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season long (1.08 points per possession allowed). The Crimson did a number on the Big Green on the boards in last week’s meeting, rebounding at 43.6 percent offensively and 78.8 percent defensively, but only had a 14-7 edge in second-chance points at the end of the night. Harvard needs to improve on its 28.4-percent turnover rate in the first meeting, while continuting to enjoy a big advantage at the line (32-15 free throw attempt differential). More than anything Dartmouth does offensively, those two Harvard stats (turnovers and free throws) should tell the story tonight.
Pomeroy says: Dartmouth 67, Harvard 76

Jake Wilson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Basketball U.

Jake Wilson wrote 754 posts

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