New York State is the setting for the first Ivy weekend of the season, with the Ps heading north to take on the Cs. This figures to be the toughest roadtrip of the Ivy season for Penn and Princeton, and it’s also a critical home weekend for young Columbia and Cornell squads if they want to make some noise this year. But just how important are these games?

First of all, here’s a look at some odds, courtesy of the Pomeroy Ratings:
Penn beats Cornell on Friday: 75 percent
Princeton beats Columbia on Friday: 58 percent
Penn beats Columbia on Saturday: 72 percent
Princeton beats Cornell on Saturday: 61 percent

Based on those numbers, here are the odds of the following individual team scenarios happening, in order of likelihood:
Penn sweeps: 54.0 percent
Princeton splits: 48.6 percent
Columbia splits: 46.4 percent
Cornell swept: 45.8 percent
Cornell splits: 44.4 percent
Columbia swept: 41.8 percent
Penn splits: 39.0 percent
Princeton sweeps: 35.0 percent
Princeton swept: 16.4 percent
Columbia sweeps: 11.8 percent
Cornell sweeps: 9.8 percent
Penn swept: 7.0 percent

From this, it’s easy to see the most likely possible compound outcome for the Ps: Penn sweeps and Princeton splits. There’s a 26.2-percent chance of one of the Cs picking off the Tigers, and a slightly better chance of it being Columbia (13.8 percent) than Cornell (12.2 percent). Here are the odds of some different standings scenarios after this weekend’s games, in order of likelihood:
Penn 2-0, Princeton 2-0, Columbia 0-2, Cornell 0-2: 19.1 percent
Penn 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Cornell 0-2: 13.8 percent
Penn 2-0, Cornell 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Columbia 0-2: 12.2 percent
Columbia 1-1, Cornell 1-1, Penn 1-1, Princeton 1-1: 11.9 percent
Penn 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Cornell 1-1, Princeton 0-2: 8.8 percent
Princeton 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Penn 1-1, Cornell 0-2: 7.4 percent
Princeton 2-0, Cornell 1-1, Penn 1-1, Columbia 0-2: 6.4 percent
Columbia 2-0, Penn 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Cornell 0-2: 5.4 percent
Cornell 2-0, Penn 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Columbia 0-2: 4.1 percent
Columbia 2-0, Cornell 1-1, Penn 1-1, Princeton 0-2: 3.4 percent
Cornell 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Penn 1-1, Princeton 0-2: 2.9 percent
Princeton 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Cornell 1-1, Penn 0-2: 2.5 percent
Columbia 2-0, Cornell 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Penn 0-2: 1.8 percent
Cornell 2-0, Columbia 1-1, Princeton 1-1, Penn 0-2: 1.6 percent
Columbia 2-0, Cornell 2-0, Penn 0-2, Princeton 0-2: 1.1 percent

Since the odds of the four teams splitting are just 11.9 percent, this means there’s an 88.1-percent chance that at least one team finds itself staring up at the league leader from a two-game hole. If it’s a C in this predicament, the chances of contention this season pretty much go up in smoke with the road trip to the Ps still remaining.

The numbers certainly look good for Penn, but Quaker fans would do well to remember their history. In 2003-04, Penn had the best non-league performance and opened Ivy play with its toughest road trip (Yale and Brown). A young Quaker squad was shocked on back-to-back nights and never could come back fully from that, as Princeton went on to win the league crown. Now this is a much more veteran Penn squad, but it’s still a good lesson in how unpredictable life an the Ivy road can be.

One thing is certain: these four games are huge for the four teams involved, and should tell us an awful lot about what kind of Ivy season we can expect this year.