Teams look to finish, start strong this weekend

By Sunday evening, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, and Yale all will have joined Harvard in completing their non-league slates, while the Crimson kicks off the Ivy League season with a visit to Dartmouth on Saturday night. The six contests scheduled for Saturday mark the final time we’ll see that many games played on one day, which is music to the ears of people who produce Gamecenters and, more importantly, their spouses who have their REM cycles interrupted by middle-of-the-night bedtimes.

Longwood (6-11) at Yale (3-9) – Saturday, 2:00 pm ET – Gametracker | Longwood audio | Yale audio
This one should be played at a quick tempo, as both Yale and Longwood like to get up and down the court, with both squads over 70 possessions per 40 minutes. The final score may not be as high scoring as you might imagine, however, because the Lancers really have struggled offensively this season (0.89 points per possession), while the Bulldogs haven’t set the world on fire either at 0.94. The good news for Yale is that Longwood isn’t very adept at getting to the line (238th nationally in free throw rate). Lancer opponents are shooting 36.1 percent from three on the season, so this should be an opportunity for the Bulldogs to improve their underachieving outside shooting. Longwood had won three straight prior to a blowout loss at Providence in its previous game, and Yale won’t have the great home court advantage with the students still on break, so this one could be a trap game right before the Bulldogs start Ivy play.
Pomeroy says: Longwood 62, Yale 73

Rice (6-6) at Princeton (8-4) – Saturday, 2:00 pm ET – Live stats | Rice audio | Princeton video | Princeton audio
With a crucial Ivy road trip to Columbia and Cornell awaiting next weekend, Princeton really wants to head into league play with a full head of steam. To do so, it will need to take down a decent Rice team, led by the amazing Morris Almond. Almond is the rare high scorer in the college game who also is ruthlessly efficient. He takes 41.5 percent of his team’s shots — more than any other player in college — but has a very good effective field goal percentage of 60.4 percent. The Tigers will have to find a way to either keep Almond in check, or prevent his supporting cast from hurting them. The Owls come in shooting very well from three-point range (38.9 percent as a team), so this will be a great test for a Princeton squad that has defended the arc extremely well to this point, allowing just 30.1 percent from three. Rice’s two biggest defensive weaknesses are a propensity for fouling, and poor defensive rebounding. Since we know Joe Scott won’t have his team crashing the offensive boards, Princeton will need to look to continue getting to the line at a decent clip.
Pomeroy says: Rice 51, Princeton 52

Marywood (Division III) at Columbia (8-5) – Saturday, 2:00 pm ET – Live stats | Columbia video | Columbia audio
The Lions will close out the non-conference schedule in rather anticlimactic fashion with a non-Division I test against Marywood. The Pacers are 4-4 on the season and beyond Prince Blacknall (14.9 points per game on 40.5-percent three-point shooting) and Adam Wildasin (14.4 points per game on 39.1-percent shooting from three), there isn’t a lot of scoring firepower on the roster. With only one Marywood starter over 6-5, the Columbia frontcourt should dominate this game inside, and the Lions can begin preparing for the upcoming visit by the Ps.
Pomeroy says: Columbia wins

Penn (6-6) at Elon (3-9) – Saturday, 2:00 pm ET – Elon audio | Penn audio
This one looks like a total mismatch on paper with Elon coming into the game with one of the worst offenses in Division I (0.85 points per possession — 322nd nationally) and a defense that isn’t much better, ranking 304th in defensive efficiency at 1.09. The Phoenix can’t shoot (30.1 percent from three, 41.6 percent from two), don’t get to the line (300th in free throw rate), and don’t get many offensive rebounds, so they won’t be able to exploit Penn’s only real defensive weakness: rebounding. The Elon defense gives up way too many good looks (53.3 percent effective field goal shooting), doesn’t force hardly any turnovers (20.9 percent), and rebounds very poorly (62.4 percent). The Phoenix is just 1-9 against Division I opponents this season, including a pair of bad losses in the past two weeks to sub-300 teams. Penn should get a lot of open shots in this game, and if it can knock them down, Glen Miller’s team should have an easy time getting back up over .500 on the year.
Pomeroy says: Penn 80, Elon 62

Harvard (7-7) at Dartmouth (5-7) – Saturday, 7:00 pm ET – Live stats | Harvard audio | Dartmouth video | Dartmouth audio
A few weeks ago, Harvard seemed to be headed to a fast start in Ivy play and Dartmouth was winless. However, the Crimson has dropped four of six and three straight, while the Big Green has won five of six since regaining the services of Leon Pattman. As a result, it’s the home team that enters this league opener with all the momentum, especially coming off a nice win at home over Army. The two teams are almost mirror opposites, with Harvard possessing a good offense (1.02 points per possession), but not playing much defense at all (1.08 points per possession), while Dartmouth has struggled offensively (0.89 points per possession), while playing solid defense of late. Brian Cusworth’s college career is down to just four games, so you can bet the Harvard big man will be motivated against the Big Green, who doesn’t have anyone with Cusworth’s size in the post. Meanwhile, Frank Sullivan will have to find a way to shut down Pattman, who is averaging 17.0 points per game in the six games he has played. Dartmouth has been faring well at making games ugly with scrappy defense and grinding out wins, while Harvard likes to get out and run. So if the possessions get up over 70, that will favor the Crimson, while a slower tempo should benefit the home team.
Pomeroy says: Harvard 74, Dartmouth 72

Brown (5-9) at Southern Methodist (10-3) – Saturday, 8:00 pm ET – Gametracker | Brown audio | SMU video | SMU audio
Brown will look to bounce back from a very disappointing loss at the buzzer at UC Davis earlier this week, but it faces a tough test at 10-3 Southern Methodist. Matt Doherty’s team has been doing it with defense (0.92 points allowed per possession). The Bears can take some comfort in the fact that a struggling North Carolina A&T team went to Moody Coliseum and beat the Mustangs 80-76 a week ago. However, the matchup doesn’t look very good for Brown, as SMU is giving up just 32.2-percent shooting from three-point range on the season, is fouling very infrequently (54th in opponent free throw rate), and has been dominating the glass (39.8 percent offensively, 69.9 percent defensively). Brown’s best chance is to exploit the Mustangs’ sloppiness with the ball (26.9-percent turnover rate) and hope it can find some way to score.
Pomeroy says: Brown 50, Southern Methodist 65

And finally, Sunday night brings us to the last game of the weekend…

NJIT (2-12) at Cornell (6-7) – Sunday, 7:00 pm ET – Gametracker | Cornell video | Cornell audio
This is another matchup of very different teams, as NJIT plays decent defense, but has struggled mightily offensively (0.83 points per possession), while Cornell has scored very well (1.05 points per possession), but given up even more (1.06 points per possession). Since winning its first two games as a Division I team with upsts of Manhattan and Rider, NJIT has lost 12 in a row, beginning with a 73-60 loss at Columbia back on November 17. The Highlanders foul a lot, so Cornell will need to continue to get to the line frequently. Between NJIT’s anemic attack and Cornell’s defensive struggles, something will have to give when the Highlanders have the ball. One positive omen for the home squad is the matchup similarity to the Big Red’s previous Division I game at Colgate that resulted in an 11-point road win. A victory would give Cornell a non-losing record outside the league for the first time under Steve Donahue and send the Big Red into Ivy play with a three-game winning streak.
Pomeroy says: NJIT 54, Cornell 69

Jake Wilson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Basketball U.

Jake Wilson wrote 754 posts

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