Penn and Princeton meet in the regular season finale on Tuesday, but will the game mean anything beyond pride and seeding in the NCAA Tournament? Princeton needs pick up at least one game on Penn this weekend to stay alive. With the Vegas Degenerates and Pomeroy appearing to have fairly similar opinions of this weekend’s games odds-wise, this week we’ll do another breakdown of the possible outcomes.
Pomeroy gives Penn and Princeton the following chances of winning:
Penn at Yale: 69%
Princeton at Brown: 47%
Penn at Brown: 82%
Princeton at Yale: 31%
Based on those percentages, we can compute odds for the nine possible scenarios, listed in order of likelihood:
Scenario one: Penn sweeps, Princeton splits (27.6 percent)
Penn wraps up the Ivy title and NCAA bid on the road trip and Tuesday’s game matters only in the sense that Princeton would love nothing more than to inflict some damage on the Quakers’ seeding prospects and send a message that next season won’t be a cakewalk.
Scenario two: Penn sweeps, Princeton swept (20.7 percent)
The Quakers clinch the league on Friday night in New Haven. Tuesday’s game has importance beyond pride for Princeton, however, as a loss would force the Tigers to share second place with Yale and possibly Cornell, depending on how the Big Red fares at Harvard and Dartmouth.
Scenario three: Both Ps split (18.4 percent)
The Tigers get the upset of Penn they need, but can’t take care of business themselves as the Quakers celebrate an Ivy title. If both Ps lose at Yale, the Bulldogs can tie Princeton for second if Princeton loses to Penn.
Scenario four: Penn splits, Princeton swept (13.8 percent)
Again, Penn locks up the title and the autobid. If the Penn loss comes at Yale, Princeton would find itself tied in the loss column with the Bulldogs and would need to win on Tuesday to avoid a third-place finish.
Scenario five: Both Ps sweep (8.2 percent)
The Tigers handle their end, but don’t get any help, as Penn punches its ticket to the Big Dance. Princeton locks up sole possession of second place in the league.
Scenario six: Penn splits, Princeton sweeps (5.5 percent)
In this scenario, Princeton would pick up the game it needs to make Tuesday’s game matter. Penn would clinch a share of the Ivy title, but the Quakers would need to win at Jadwin to eliminate the Tigers and avoid a tie for the crown. Princeton would be guaranteed no worse than a second-place finish, regardless of the outcome of the finale.
Scenario seven: Penn swept, Princeton splits (2.7 percent)
Also a possible outcome that would result in some drama next week. The Tigers would need to win on Tuesday to force a playoff game. If it’s the Yale game that Princeton drops this weekend, the Tigers would finish tied with the Bulldogs for second place with a loss to Penn. If the Princeton loss comes at Brown, the Tigers would have second place all to themselves, regardless of Tuesday’s outcome.
Scenario eight: Both Ps swept (2.0 percent)
Penn backs into the Ivy title and Yale would finish second ahead of the Tigers with a Quaker victory on Tuesday. Not outside the realm of possibility.
Scenario nine: Penn swept, Princeton sweeps (0.8 percent)
Penn finds itself tied with the Tigers at 10-3 in the league going into a winner-takes-all finale at Jadwin. Penn dropped both games and Princeton won twice on this very roadtrip just two years ago on this roadtrip, so stranger things have happened. But less than a one-percent chance is not exactly encouraging for Princeton fans.
So here’s the bottom line as far as the Ivy title chase is concerned after this weekend:
Penn clinches the Ivy League title and NCAA Tournament bid: 91.1 percent
Penn clinches a share of the title, but Princeton can force a playoff game with a win on Tuesday: 8.2 percent
Penn and Princeton are tied and Tuesday’s game is an Ivy championship game: 0.8 percent
