Princeton trails Penn by two games with just five remaining for each team, so the Tigers’ only real shot at a share of the Ivy title involves winning out while hoping someone else can take down Penn, too. The Quakers’ magic number to clinch outright is four, so if Penn makes it through this weekend unscathed, Princeton’s title odds grow significantly longer, as Penn would have to lose two of its final three games. This week The 14-Game Tournament looks at the possible outcomes of this weekend’s action at Jadwin Gym and The Palestra.
The odds
Ken Pomeroy’s ratings say Penn has a 91-percent chance of beating Harvard and a 97-percent chance of defeating Dartmouth. Meanwhile, Princeton is given a 79-percent chance of beating Dartmouth and a 58-percent chance against Harvard. Based on those odds, one can compute following:
Penn has an 88.3-percent chance of sweeping, an 11.5-percent chance of splitting, and a 0.2-percent chance of being swept.
Princeton has a 45.8-percent chance of sweeping, a 45.4-percent chance of splitting, and an 8.8-percent chance of being swept.
Scenario one: Penn and Princeton both sweep (Odds: 40.4 percent)
The most likely scenario, especially if you consider the fact that Harvard is not playing like the team that won 12 of its first 18 games. This would move us forward to the final Ivy weekend with Princeton basically needing to sweep Brown and Yale while Penn drops a game on the trip, then a win over the Quakers in the final game at Jadwin. With Brown down this year, Princeton’s season is essentially riding on Friday night’s Penn-Yale game. Speaking of Yale, a Penn sweep would leave the Bulldogs on the brink of elimination, assuming they win both road games this weekend.
Scenario two: Penn sweeps, Princeton splits (Odds: 40.0 percent)
Penn clinches a share of the Ivy title. If Yale fails to sweep this weekend, it is eliminated. If the Bulldogs sweep this weekend, both they and the Tigers are done with the next loss or the next Quaker win. And Friday night’s game in New Haven is basically the field’s final stand against a Quaker repeat.
Scenario three: Penn sweeps, Princeton swept (Odds: 7.8 percent)
This would clinch at least a tie of for the title for Penn, and depending how Yale does, possibly an NCAA Tournament bid. Considering that Pomeroy gives Yale only a 22.8-percent chance of sweeping this weekend, that means there is essentially a six-percent chance that Penn clinches an NCAA Tournament bid this weekend. If Harvard and Dartmouth rise up to exact revenge for the close losses Princeton dealt them up north, Penn handles its business, and Yale slips up on the road where it is 1-4 in Ivy play, it’s all over.
Scenario four: Penn splits, Princeton sweeps (Odds: 5.3 percent)
The Tigers would pick up a game, and depending how Yale does at the Cs, the Ivy race could really tighten up. The Bulldogs still have their home P weekend left next week, and this scenario would give those games all kinds of meaning.
Scenario five: Penn and Princeton both split (Odds: 5.2 percent)
Princeton wouldn’t pick up any ground, but if Yale can sweep in New York, the Bulldogs would join the Tigers two games back in the loss column.
Scenario six: Penn splits, Princeton swept (Odds: 1.0 percent)
The Tigers would drop three back with three games left, meaning they need to win out while Penn loses out. If Yale can make it back to New Haven with a pair of wins, the Bulldogs would move into second place, two games behind in the loss column.
Scenario seven: Penn swept, Princeton sweeps (Odds: 0.1 percent)
While Tiger fans would love to see this happen, the odds are too small to spend any time on this.
Scenario eight: Penn swept, Princeton splits (Odds: 0.1 percent)
Also too far-fetched.
Scenario nine: Penn and Princeton both swept (Odds: New York Knicks, 2005-06 NBA Champions)
“I just got a message that said ‘Yeah, hell has frozen over.'”
