The shockwaves of Columbia’s last-second win over Penn have died down now, giving us a chance to survey the post-upset landscape. And at least from Penn’s perspective, things are actually pretty much the same as before. For Columbia, however, it’s an entirely different story.

Penn’s position relatively unaffected
While Penn fans certainly were dismayed by the result, the damage to Penn’s postseason rèsumè is remarkably minimal. The Quakers entered the game ranked 100th in the RPI and fell to 112th after the weekend. The projected RPI ranking has dropped nine spots from 64th to 73rd. But there are currently eight conferences in which no team is ranked above Penn in the RPI, and only one (Pacific of the Big West at 112th) is in the Quakers’ neighborhood. A ninth conference, the Big Sky, has one team ahead of Penn (Montana at 80th), but the Grizzlies are two games out of first place in the standings. What does this mean? Well, mainly that even without a single conference tournament upset, Penn almost certainly would have to lose this weekend at home or go 1-2 or worse in its final three games on the road to be a natural 15 seed. (And if the latter should happen, Fran Dunphy’s team may not be going dancing at all.)

Now the loss did ruin Penn’s chances of ending the season with a 12-game winning streak and added a bad loss to the Quakers’ postseason resume. But when you consider that the only team close to Penn has an even worse loss (at home by 12 to 312th-ranked UC Riverside), the bad loss thing probably isn’t going to be much of a factor. Now Friday’s result did make it tougher for Penn to jump up to a natural 13 seed, but even that probably wasn’t affected too much, since any upsets that push the Quakers up the s-curve would have done so regardless of how they did against Columbia. Realistically, with Penn emerging from the weekend with its two-game league intact, the only thing ruined by the loss was the Quakers’ chance to clinch the title and automatic bid in February.

A Lion lifeline
As for Columbia, the win and the weekend sweep it started were absolutely huge. Not so much for anything it does this season for the Lions — who would need to win out just to avoid a losing season in the league — but for its possible impact down the road. This is a young, sophomore-dominated team that couldn’t help but be down on itself after what it’s been through the last two seasons: raising expectations with fast starts, then regressing as the season progressed. That can’t be good for the team’s psyche, much less its morale. But this weekend’s successes stopped — at least for one week — that downward spiral.

Now it’s up to Joe Jones and his players to make sure this opportunity isn’t wasted. Yale will be tough, Glen Miller’s still a great coach, and winning on the road in this league is always a challenge. But at the very least Columbia needs to get a split of the remaining four games to carry some momentum into next season. Take three of four and the Lions go into next year on a very positive note. Win all four and they could find themselves second in the preseason poll next year.