IVY SEASON PREVIEW: Penn Trendspotting

The numbers: 1-12 overall, 0-0 Ivy, 308th RPI, 330th Sagarin, 317th Pomeroy

The recent results: defeated UMBC 82-71 (1/6), lost to Temple 60-45 (1/13), lost to LaSalle 76-57 (1/20)
The upcoming schedule: vs. St. Joseph’s (1/25), at Yale (1/29), at Brown (1/30)

Key Non-Conference Wins: at UMBC 82-71 (1/6)

Who’s Left?

Here are your minutes leaders from the Quakers’ opener against Penn State: Zack Rosen (39), Jack Eggleston (33), Darren Smith (31), Rob Belcore (27), Conor Turley (22), Tyler Bernardini (17), Mike Howlett (16), and Andreas Schreiber (9). Against Temple exactly two months later, Rosen, Eggleston, Smith, Belcore and Turley remained the top five, but with Bernardini, Howlett and Schreiber all on the shelf for the season with various injuries, those minutes found their way to a couple journeyman juniors and two freshmen, one of which was a preferred walk-on. Even if Penn’s remaining starting five is good enough to compete at the Division I level – and the jury’s still out on that – the bench is so thin at this point that it’s dubious whether the Quakers can maintain a high enough level of play to compete with anything but the dregs of Division I for a full 40 minutes.

It’s not fun to talk about next year in January, but with the loads of talent Penn has recruited in its 2010 class, a thin bench shouldn’t be a problem in West Philadelphia for at least a few years to come.

Points Per Possession. Lots of Them.

There’s no doubt that the Quakers have struggled on both ends of the court this season, but it’s common for Ivy teams to post offensive efficiency ratings further below the national average of roughly 100 than their defensive ratings are above. That’s certainly not the case for Penn. The Quakers’ 92.6 offensive rating is about four points per possession off the league average, while its 113.0 defensive rating sits over 10 points above the league average. To make matters worse, it’s much easier to distinguish what Penn is doing well (defensive rebounding – 67.5 percent, 154th nationally) than what it’s doing poorly (everything else). The Quakers’ defensive EFG percent allowed of 56.0 is 338th nationally, which coincidentally is where the squad’s defensive rating ranks, and their turnover rate of 17.2 per 100 possessions is 325th nationally.

In other words, opponents aren’t getting many second chances, but it doesn’t really matter, because they’re getting a ton of first chances and doing really well with those.

A Rosen By Any Other Name

One of the bright spots for the Quakers this season has been the continued development of star sophomore point guard Zack Rosen. Due to the limited bench, Penn fans have sure been able to see a lot of him – his 90.6 percent of team minutes played is 13th nationally. The (over)usage doesn’t seem to have slowed down Rosen one bit, as his 112.7 offensive rating is fifth in the league among qualified players. His biggest improvement has been his shooting, especially from long range, and his ability to get to the line and convert there, the combination of which has allowed Rosen to post a 62.9 true shooting percentage, which ranks 84th nationally.

One area where Rosen has declined marginally is in the defensive measurables, as his steal percentage has dropped dramatically and his defensive rebounding percentage has fallen slightly. Most likely, the increased minutes and offensive responsibilities have pulled some of his attention away from the defensive end of the floor.

Odds & Ends

– The losses to LaSalle and Temple ran Penn’s home-court losing streak to six games. The Quakers last win at The Palestra was February 28, 2009 against Brown. Penn’s final non-conference home game is against Saint Joseph’s next Monday, before taking to the road for four straight to start Ivy play.

– Pomeroy has the Quakers as favorites in just one Ivy game (home against Dartmouth), but 40 percent or better to win three other league contests (at Dartmouth, 49%, vs. Yale, 42% and vs. Columbia, 40%). Overall, Pomeroy predicts Penn will go 3-11 in the Ivies.

– The Quakers got their first commitment of the post-Glen Miller era, as Fran Dougherty of Archbishop Wood (PA) committed to Penn on Wednesday. Dougherty is a 6-8 post player who has missed some of his senior season with a stress fracture in his foot.

Michael James

Michael James wrote 98 posts

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