Dartmouth Big Green 2009-2010 Season Preview

2008-2009 Record: 9-19 (7-7, T-4th Ivy)

2008-2009 Review: After an abysmal start – Dartmouth won just one Division I game in 14 tries – the Big Green ratcheted up the defensive intensity and senior forward Alex Barnett put the offense on his back, as Dartmouth surged to take seven of its final 13 contests. The highlight of the strong late-season run surprisingly was actually a loss of the double-overtime variety in Ithaca. The Big Green came the closest to knocking off Cornell in Newman Arena of any team since the Big Red lost to Colgate in December 2007.

Dartmouth’s improved play during the season’s second half went beyond just stronger defense and Barnett’s offensive explosion. The Big Green also exercised more control over the pace of games, more effectively keeping the number of possessions in the low- to mid-60s. Dartmouth only won two games in which there were more than 66 possessions, but both of those required overtime periods to go over that mark. The slower pace kept the games closer down the stretch, where Barnett would be able to take the contest over and lead the Big Green to victory.

Key Losses: F Alex Barnett (19.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.4 apg)

Sure frontcourt stalwarts Dan Biber, Kurt Graeber and Elgin Fitzgerald are gone as well, but those losses are orders of magnitude less important than Barnett. Last season’s Ivy Player of the Year, Barnett took 33.5 percent of Dartmouth’s shots while he was on the floor, and only guard Ronnie Dixon produced an offensive rating within 13 points per 100 possessions. But just how important was Barnett last year? Distributing the do-everything forward’s possessions to other Big Green players would have led to a drop in offensive output of over three points per game and a little over a point per game on the defensive end. That nearly five point swing would have been the difference in many of Dartmouth’s Ivy wins last season.

Key Returnees: G Jabari Trotter (7.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.6 apg); G David Rufful (6.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg); G Ronnie Dixon (5.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg); G Marlon Sanders (4.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg); G Robby Pride (4.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg)

The cupboard is not bare; it’s just not very inspiring. Dixon is the only effective shooter of the bunch, none of the five is particularly skilled at drawing fouls or generating assists, and just Dixon and Sanders are competent at taking care of the ball. Sadly, guard play appears to be this team’s strength, which is not an encouraging sign.

Key Arrivals: G Garrett Brown, F Josef Brown, G Mbiymoh Ghogomu, F R.J. Griffin, F Matt LaBove

Ghogomu has very similar size to the departed Barnett and comes in as likely the most heralded recruit. Brown is a pure shooter. The guard spot at Dartmouth is crowded, but there’s not terribly much quality to speak of, which should provide these freshmen with a chance to crack the rotation. The forwards stand a much better chance, as the departure of three bigs from the program, leave the Big Green desperate for warm bodies up front, making immediate playing time a real possibility.

Top Non-Conference Games:

Dartmouth at Boston College, Friday, November 13th, 7:00 p.m. – What better way to find out what you have after the graduation of a superstar than to take on quality, high-major competition. This one will be a real trial-by-fire test for Terry Dunn’s crew, which will undoubtedly enter the game still very much a work-in-progress.

Dartmouth at George Mason, Sunday, November 15th, 4:00 p.m. – The reward for surviving Boston College is a trip to Fairfax to take on NIT-qualifying George Mason. Where will the Big Green’s confidence level be after this brutal two-game stretch to start the season? Hopefully it will still be high enough to take advantage of a nice easy stretch with a few winnable games.

Dartmouth vs. Hartford, Saturday, November 28th, 7:00 p.m.
– The second of five consecutive home dates, this contest is one of the most winnable Division I games on the schedule, though the Big Green certainly loaded up with many of those. Hartford gets All-America East performer Joe Zeglinski back from an ankle injury, but still have to compensate for the loss of its two other top offensive threats from a team that went 7-26 last year.

By The Numbers: The Pomeroy offensive statistics for Dartmouth pretty much start and finish with Barnett. It’s rare that you see one player dominate so many categories for a squad, but Barnett was the team leader in minutes, offensive rating, possessions used, shots take, true shooting percentage, assist rate, (lowest) turnover rate, and fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He was edged by Dixon in efficient field goal percentage and didn’t register a competitive offensive rebounding percentage – but when you’re taking a third of the shots, it’s hard to rebound the ball too.

The Big Green really struggles to produce easy baskets by getting teammates involved in the offense. Only 41.8 percent of Dartmouth baskets were accompanied by an assist, which ranks 340th nationally. Maybe some of the assists were so good that opponents’ necessary fouls wiped them off the board? That’s unlikely, as Dartmouth was 295th worst in the nation at getting to the line – not to mention 294th worst at keeping people from it on the other end.

Strengths: One definitely has to do some digging for possible items to list here. Dartmouth does have a hodge-podge of serviceable perimeter players, if not terribly efficient ones. While settling on starters might be a chore, there will be plenty of depth to back them up. The Big Green’s bench logged the fourth-most minutes of any group in the country.

Weaknesses: Where to begin? Dartmouth was quite soft on the interior last year, but with three forwards gone from that squad, they’ll be even more exposed this season. An already inefficient backcourt will now have to spread around 25 percent more of the team’s possessions to players, most of whom were hard pressed to handle the burden they already had. As a team, the Big Green posted a woeful 44.9 efficient field goal percentage and graduated the guy that took 28 percent of the total team shots, knocking them down at a 50 percent clip. If what remains can’t improve on last season’s performance, Dartmouth could really struggle to put points on the board.

Season Outlook: Quite simply – not good. There’s no obvious answer to replace Barnett’s production on a team that was pretty awful to begin with. The non-conference schedule is relatively light, allowing for a few possible victories, and it’s entirely possible that the Big Green could catch a couple teams napping at Leede on those frigid weekends in February. But the ceiling on wins is probably, best case, six or seven.

In a relatively murky Ivy race, only two things are clear. The first is that Cornell is the prohibitive favorite to win the league. And the second, to the dismay of those in Hanover, is that Dartmouth is clearly the worst.

Ivy Basketball

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