2009-2010 Preseason Ivy League Power Rankings

The 2009-2010 college basketball season is just a day away. (I know, I was surprised too, what with the 2010 Ivy League championship banner already hanging in Newman Arena.) Apparently, they’re still going to make all eight Ivy teams play out the remaining 28 or so games on their schedule despite the fact that Cornell clinched the title sometime during this past summer. But there are still spots two through eight to be played for, so let’s get to the preseason Power Rankings:


8. Dartmouth

Lost in the shuffle of Alex Barnett & Co.’s 7-of-11 run through the meat of the Ivy schedule was its drastic defensive improvement. Only three times in those 11 games did Dartmouth allow its opponents at least a point per possession (unsurprisingly the Big Green went 1-2 in those contests), after ceding at least that many in 11 of the first 15 games it played last season. But this isn’t one of those feel good moments of misguided optimism though. The difference between playing very good defense and very bad defense will only really amount to the difference between winning four or five games and struggling to win one.

It’s one thing that Barnett carries his quarter-load of the Dartmouth attack out of Hanover with him, but the departures of Elgin Fitzgerald, Dan Biber and Kurt Graeber take away another fifth. Yes, someone will have to score, but don’t expect it to be done very efficiently and don’t expect it to be enough to keep the Big Green in many games.

JOE SCOTT DIVISION (Once Proud, Now Humbled)

7. Yale

One of the league’s most underappreciated marks is James Jones’ streak of .500 or better league seasons dating back to 2001. Well, take a moment to appreciate it, preferably sometime within the next four months.

Losing Travis Pinick and Ross Morin probably left Yale’s ceiling at a Houdini-like 7-7 that could have kept Jones’ streak intact. But throw Garrett Fiddler into the mix and now you’ve got a vessel that’s more holes than ship. Even if the Bulldogs can maintain their best defensive showing of the past six years, they are another team that will struggle desperately to score points. Alex Zampier, who shouldered 18 percent of the offense last year, is going to become Yale’s Harrison Gaines – an inefficient offensive creator that kills his team, but really has no choice since he’s all they’ve got.

Hey, but I hear good things about the freshmen. Sadly none of them are named John Wall.

6. Columbia

Along with Yale, another team that has gone under the radar in scrapping together .500 league seasons in recent years. But with Jason Miller gone to graduation and Max Craig out indefinitely, the interior will either be pretty soft or pretty terrible on offense depending on how much seven-footer Zack Crimmins sees the floor. If Noruwa Agho can actually hit some shots and Patrick Foley can stay on the floor, the offense has a small chance to just be bad instead of abysmal. Even if the guards perform though, the Lions will still have to scrap out some production out of the frontline and there’s no patently obvious choice there.

My gut tells me that one of Columbia and Yale will be better than this, as one of the Jones brothers will figure it out and make a serious run at keeping his .500 or better streak intact. For now, however, let’s neither over nor underrate the prospects that either of these two teams have entering the season.


5. Brown

Brown committed 403 turnovers last season. Its opponents gave it away just 292 times. No need to even get into how much better the Bears’ opponents shot from the field or how many more assists they had, if Brown is going to continue to turn the ball over 38% more than its opponents, you might as well tie it to a rock and let it sink to the bottom of the Ivies now.

Yet for some reason, this Brown team is intriguing. Matt Mullery, the best offensive big man in the Ivies, is flanked by a good wing and good guard (Peter Sullivan and Adrian Williams, respectively). Sure it lost two starters, but Chris Skrelja and Scott Friske were hardly more efficient offensively than Penn’s Cameron Lewis (it’s true, look it up). It’s fair to say that Brown has little in house to inspire much confidence as a viable replacement – there’s a reason why four Bears starters finished in the top 206 nationally in minutes played – but Brown might be able to get enough out of freshmen Andrew McCarthy, Tucker Halpern and Tyler Ponticelli to allow the big three of Mullery, Sullivan and Williams to bring it back to the upper division.

4. Penn

Let’s see. Shoot first, quasi-point guard Harrison Gaines is gone. Interior orange traffic cones Brennan Votel and Cameron Lewis have graduated. The surprisingly efficient Kevin Egee has earned his diploma as well. This will be a new Penn team this year, and you know what, that’s probably not a bad thing.

A more mature Zack Rosen teams up with a healthier Tyler Bernardini and two guys in Andreas Schreiber and Darren Smith who will be key contributors despite not having seen the floor in almost a year and over two years, respectively. Throw in All-Ivy caliber forward Jack Eggleston and a very strong sixth man in Rob Belcore and you’ve got the outline of a relatively competitive team. We’re leaving the Quakers here until Schreiber and Smith prove both healthy and productive and the lightly-used returning reserves and newcomers show that they can provide much needed depth.

TOM SCHNEIDER DIVISION (Certainly Has The Alumni Base Talking)

3. Harvard

The Ivy League’s social pariah can only continue its long anticipated march up the Ivy standings if it learns challenge shooters, fight through screens, play help defense, rebound… you get the picture. The Crimson posted the seventh best offensive season by a league team in the past five years and barely scratched its way to a tie for sixth.

Once again, Harvard’s offense should allow it to play with anyone on any night, but what’s far more important is that its defense takes the huge strides necessary to allow it to play with everyone on every night. It’s that consistency (or lack thereof) that will push the Crimson above or below this preliminary mark.

DAVE FAUCHER DIVISION (Premature Success Masking Inevitable Failure)

2. Princeton

The Tigers are the gambler’s nightmare. They graduated no one of material substance from a team that has a top half offense and defense. They brought in one of the top freshmen, if not the top one, in the league. And they’ve already proven they belong here with a tied for second finish last season.

Yet this team is so troubling from an analytical perspective. Princeton can’t get to the line, can’t rebound offensively and can’t protect the ball. On defense, they put way too many teams on the line and lucked out last year, in that teams shot worse than average from the stripe against them. Listen, maybe they do post the fifth best three-point shooting percentage against in the nation and a top 25 mark in efficient field goal percentage again.

I’m not saying it won’t happen. Just be careful here. Slow pace plus high percentage of threes is a high variance recipe with often unpredictable results.

JOHN THOMPSON DIVISION (Mail My Championship Ring To My Next Job)

1. Cornell

Just kidding Cornell fans. I don’t think Steve Donahue is going (just) anywhere.

The Big Red’s job over the next two months is to earn the league both respect and valuable RPI points. The last Ivy team to finish in the top 80 in the Pomeroy Ratings was Penn in 2003 and certainly Cornell will settle for nothing less than eclipsing that mark as well. For that to happen it needs to seize the elusive high-profile wins that it saw slip from its grasp last season.

Even if the Big Red were to sustain a few injuries, the Ivy season should be nothing more than a coronation. The league is certainly good enough to pick Cornell off on the road a couple times, but none of the other teams are consistent enough to hold serve themselves and seriously challenge the prohibitive favorites. That title won’t be enough for the Big Red this season, as another first-round NCAA exit would be a bitter disappointment. http://www.shesagoa.com/review.php?p=1-6224 ndmEOenrt rr
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Michael James

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