Princeton Trendspotting

The numbers: 8-14 overall, 6-3 Ivy, 245th RPI, 251st Sagarin, 271st Pomeroy
The recent results: lost 65-64 at Columbia (2/18), won 76-68 in 2OT at Cornell (2/17)
The upcoming schedule: vs. Dartmouth (2/24), vs. Harvard (2/25)

Living and dying by the three
There have been several explanations for the Tigers’ improved play in the Ivy League season — from Justin Conway’s emergence to a simplification of the offense to “the light suddenly going on.” But when it comes down to it, the biggest difference is that Princeton is hitting its three-pointers. Outside the league the Tigers shot 19 of 41 (46.3 percent) from three-point range in the two wins and 83 of 246 (33.7 percent) in the 11 losses. In the six Ivy wins, Princeton hit 58 of 137 from the arc (42.3 percent), but just 18 of 64 (28.1 percent) in the three losses.

Greenman takes over
After shooting just 26.9 percent from the field and a frigid 17.1 percent from three prior to the exam break, Scott Greenman took advantage of the time off to work on his shot. He realized he was jumping too much when he shot, and cut back on it. The results speak for themselves, as Greenman is hitting 52.0 percent of his field goals and 53.7 percent of his three-point attempts since the break. The lone senior on the roster, Greenman has played a key role in five of Princeton’s six Ivy wins, including last weekend’s amazing performance at Cornell. He is tied for sixth in scoring in Ivy games at 15.0 points per game.

Improved three-point defense
Princeton’s defense got torched to the tune of 42.7 percent from outside the arc by non-league opponents, but the Tigers have tightened up the perimeter defense, holding Ivy opponents to 33.0-percent shooting from three-point range. Joe Scott’s defense smothered Harvard’s Jim Goffredo, preventing him from hitting a single three-pointer in the win in Boston, and has held opponents under 33 percent from the arc in six of nine Ivy contests.

Up-and-down season for Savage
Noah Savage started off his sophomore season with a bang, averaging 16.8 points in the first five games. But the Princeton native has been wildly inconsistent since then, putting up 17 at Rutgers, 23 against Brown, and 28 at Cornell, but scoring eight or fewer points on 11 other occasions. Savage is shooting a very healthy 39.2 percent from three-point range, but just 34.7 percent inside the arc.

Now winning the turnover battle
Another key to Princeton’s improvement in the second half of the season has been a sharp drop in turnovers. Outside the league the Tigers saw 26.4 percent of their possessions end without a field goal attempt or free throw. In Ivy games no one has taken better care of the ball than Princeton, with the turnover rate down to 19.0 percent. Meanwhile, the Tigers still are forcing opponent turnovers on over 25 percent of possessions, which means they’re now coming out on top in turnover differential.

Odds and ends
Scott continues to cede rebounds to the other team, as his team is dead last in the Ivy League in rebounding, grabbing 65.8 percent opponents’ missed shots and just 20.5 percent of its own misses… Noah Savage has 65 rebounds on the season, but only five are offensive… League opponents are averaging a free throw attempt every 2.49 possessions against the Tigers — easily the highest rate allowed by any Ivy team… Kyle Koncz has attempted 112 three-pointers and just 17 two-pointers… One of the reasons Harrison Schaen isn’t playing more: the sophomore has five assists and 20 turnovers in 175 minutes of action.

Jake Wilson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Basketball U.

Jake Wilson wrote 754 posts

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