The March 2 rematch between Yale and Penn has been circled on Ivy hoops calendars ever since the Bulldogs handed the Quakers their first and only loss in Ivy play back on February 3. But with Penn having run the table since and Yale now a game back in the loss column after the loss at Cornell two weeks ago, what are the odds we get a game next week with real championship implications? This week’s 14GT looks at the impact of this weekend’s games.
The situation
Just like last weekend, Penn enjoys a one-game lead in the loss column, but this week there’s only one team breathing down the Quakers’ neck after Cornell dropped a hotly contested game at The Palestra on Saturday. The Big Red is clinging to life, needing to win out while hoping for a dramatic collapse by the two-time defending champions to give it a shot a playoff game. For those who want to see a down-to-the-wire Ivy race, Yale really is the last remaining hope. The Bulldogs also probably need to win out, but they still control their own destiny by virtue of next week’s game at Penn. As for the Quakers, they have three of their final five games on the road, however these away games are at the bottom three teams in the league — all of whom are eliminated mathematically already.
The games
Friday’s Cornell-Yale game is the highlight of the weekend, especially after the way the previous meeting played out in Ithaca, with freshman Ryan Wittman hitting his two free throws in the final minute for the Big Red and senior Casey Hughes missing two in the final seconds for the Bulldogs. Still, Cornell has lost five straight in New Haven, and Lee Amphitheater always is a tough environment for visiting teams. History also is on Yale’s side on Saturday, when James Jones looks to improve to 7-1 against younger brother Joe’s Columbia program. Cornell has to head over to Providence on Saturday to face a Brown team that is showing real improvement, having swept a home weekend from Harvard and Dartmouth last week. Speaking of the Crimson and Big Green, Penn will look to have an easier time with them than it did at home two weeks ago, when both programs — minus their leading scorers on the season — gave the Quakers more competitive games than the final scores indicated.
The odds
Pomeroy gives the road teams the following chances of winning this weekend…
Cornell at Yale: 28 percent
Penn at Harvard: 87 percent
Cornell at Brown: 51 percent
Columbia at Yale: 18 percent
Penn at Dartmouth: 93 percent
The possible scenarios
Scenario A: Penn, Yale sweep; Cornell splits
Assuming the favorites win all five games involving contenders, Yale would stay right on Penn’s heels, while Cornell would be mathematically eliminated.
Odds: 24.3 percent
Scenario B: Penn, Yale sweep; Cornell swept
Cornell is only a slight favorite at Brown, so were the Bears to win on Saturday, the odds aren’t that different, but given that sweeps by Penn and Yale eliminate the Big Red regardless of Saturday’s result, it doesn’t really matter anyway.
Odds: 23.4 percent
Scenario C: Penn sweeps; Cornell, Yale split
Aside from any tie-breaking situations at the end of the season, it’s not important how Cornell and Yale might split these games, because the Ivy race would be all but over anyway, with the Bulldogs two games back and the Big Red facing elimination with its next loss or the next Quaker win.
Odds: 14.5 percent
Scenario D: Cornell, Penn sweep; Yale splits
Should the Big Red go into The Church on Friday and win, and the contenders take the other four games, Penn is all but assured of a third-straight Ivy title by virtue of the fact both Cornell and Yale would be two games out with three to play for the Quakers.
Odds: 9.5 percent
Scenario E: Yale sweeps; Cornell, Penn split
Yale would pull even with Penn in the all-important loss column — with Cornell a game behind — if the Bulldogs were to take both games in New Haven while the Big Red won in Providence and the Quakers dropped a game on their longest road trip of the Ivy season.
Odds: 5.5 percent
Scenario F: Yale sweeps; Penn splits; Cornell swept
The same as the above scenario, except the Big Red exits the Ivy race mathematically by virtue of an 0-2 weekend.
Odds: 5.3 percent
Scenario G: Penn sweeps; Yale splits; Cornell swept
The Quakers bid adieu to the Big Red, and can clinch the league — while exacting some revenge — with a win over the Bulldogs next Friday.
Odds: 5.1 percent
Scenario H: Cornell, Penn, Yale split
If everybody goes 1-1, all three teams remain alive, but it really all comes down to Yale-Penn at The Palestra.
Odds: 3.3 percent
Scenario I: Cornell sweeps; Penn, Yale split
Steve Donahue’s team would find itself tied with Yale in second place, with both teams having one more loss than Penn.
Odds: 2.1 percent
Scenario J: Cornell, Penn sweep; Yale swept
The same as above, except Cornell would have second place all to itself, while Yale would be on the brink of elimination.
Odds: 2.1 percent
Scenario K: Penn sweeps; Cornell splits; Yale swept
Glen Miller can celebrate a share of his first Ivy title as the Quakers assure themselves of no worse than a playoff game for the NCAA Tournament bid — and that would require them dropping all three of their remaining games.
Odds: 2.0 percent
Possible standings outcomes
Penn still is alone in first place
The extremely high likelihood of a Quaker sweep — plus the uncertainty of a Yale sweep — means that Penn probably will keep the top spot all to itself after the weekend. Now most of the scenarios that result in this outcome don’t involve Yale losing a game in the standings to the Quakers, so next week’s meeting between the two teams still should have some real importance. However, it doesn’t look nearly as good for Cornell, for whom elimination is more than a 50/50 proposition (58.1 percent, to be precise).
Odds: 88.4 percent
Penn and Yale are tied in the loss column
The numbers say Penn has less than a one-percent chance of being swept this weekend, so it’s going to be tough for the Quakers to fall behind the Bulldogs in the loss column. However, should Penn slip up and Yale sweep — or in the extremely unlikely event Penn is swept and Yale splits — the two teams could have the same number of losses going into next Friday’s game. Technically, Yale would be percentage points ahead of Penn, by virtue of the Bulldogs having played one more game than the Quakers.
Odds: 11.0 percent
Something else happens
Should Penn go winless on the weekend, there are three alternate possibilities. If Penn is swept and Yale sweeps — an outcome expected 0.5 percent of the time — the Bulldogs would have first place all to themselves. Additionally, there’s a possibility of a three-way tie atop the league with three losses in Cornell sweeps and the others are swept, however the odds are only 0.1 percent. Finally, there is a 0.02-percent chance Cornell and Penn could be tied atop the league with three losses, with Yale a game behind with five defeats. However, these outcomes all would appear to rank just below “longshot.”
Combined odds: 0.7 percent
The bottom line
This leaves us with the big question: What are the chances an Ivy title is at stake in next Friday’s game in Philly? Pomeroy’s odds tell us that there is a 65.9-percent chance Yale is within a game of Penn after this weekend. The Bulldogs aren’t the only team in striking distance of the Quakers, but Pomeroy puts Cornell’s chances of being within a game of Penn on Sunday at 0.5 percent. The weekend really comes down to the fact that if Penn takes care of business on its final road weekend, it takes a major step toward a three-peat. And should Yale stumble at home while the Quakers are winning, it’s all but over.
