With the preseason favorites sweeping its first road weekend and with five teams already saddled with two or more league losses, the chances of an exciting Ivy League race may hinge Saturday’s Penn-Yale tilt at Lee Amphitheater. Of course, in order for that game to maximum importance, the Bulldogs need to win on Friday night in against a desperate Princeton squad. After dropping a home game to a likely second-division team in Brown, this is the Yale’s shot at atonement. This week’s 14-Game Tournament takes a look at the upcoming action in New Haven.

The Pomeroy Ratings give Yale a 72-percent chance of beating Princeton, but only a 28-percent chance against Penn. Based on those percentages, here are the odds for the four possible scenarios for the Bulldogs, along with the implications — in order of likelihood:

Yale beats Princeton, loses to Penn
This is by far the most likely outcome, as Pomeroy gives the Bulldogs the same excellent odds of beating the Tigers as losing to the Quakers. Assuming Penn wins on Friday night in Providence — where Pomeroy estimates it has an 88-percent chance of beating Brown — this leaves Yale at 4-2 in the league, two games out in the loss column. The Bulldogs will face a serious uphill climb, with the Columbia-Cornell and Penn-Princeton road trips still to go, while Penn will be at home the rest of the way, with the exception of the Dartmouth-Harvard trip and the season finale at Princeton. Speaking of the Tigers, after losing in New Haven, they would need to win a toss-up game at Brown on Saturday to avoid an 0-4 start. If Cornell can’t sweep the Big Green and Crimson, Penn would be up two games on the field and headed toward a third-straight early clinch.
Odds: 51.8 percent

Yale sweeps
If the Bulldogs can rally behind their intimidating home crowd at The Church and sweep the Ps for the third time in six seasons, they’ll find themselves no worse than tied for first place. While the Quakers still would have the edge based on their easy remaining schedule, the Bulldogs — and possibly the Big Red if it takes care of business this weekend — would have two more wins in hand. Interestingly, despite the loss at Yale, Princeton still could be hanging by a thread if it can beat Brown to stay no worse than two games back.
Odds: 20.2 percent

Yale is swept
Should Princeton bounce back on Friday and Penn leave New Haven with a win on Saturday, Yale will be in dire straights. Provided the Quakers go undefeated on the weekend, the Bulldogs will be all but eliminated at 3-3 in the league and three games out in the loss column. This would seem to leave Cornell as league’s best threat at catching Penn, as long as the Big Red emerges unscathed from its New England weekend getaway. Depending on how Princeton fares in Providence the next night, the Tigers also would find themselves on the periphery of the Ivy title chase.
Odds: 20.2 percent

Yale loses to Princeton, beats Penn
By far the most unlikely but most interesting scenario, were the Bulldogs to lose on Friday and win on Saturday, the league race suddenly would get very interesting. Penn would have at least one Ivy loss, depending on how it fared at Brown, while Yale would be just one game back in the loss column at 4-2. If Princeton is able to sweep the weekend, the Tigers would have new life, just a game behind the Quakers. And at least one team is going to come out of the games in Hanover and Allston very much in contention — with Cornell in first place if it can sweep. Penn has swept the first round of Ivy play the past two years, so an early loss would show Penn to be mortal, it could be a wild ride the rest of the way.
Odds: 7.8 percent