Following a rough post-Thanksgiving weekend that carried over into some disappointing results earlier this week, this weekend’s games will give Ivy League teams a number of chances to make statements, achieve seasons firsts, and — in some instances — atone for earlier mistakes.
Studies in contrast
Cornell and Princeton start things off with a pair of early evening opening round games in four-team tournaments featuring teams with very different offensive philosphies.
Cornell (3-3) vs. VMI (3-5) – 6:00 pm ET
The Big Red is down in Williamsburg, VA, for the William & Mary Tip-Off Classic, and will face speed freaks VMI tonight. The Keydets play fast and furious, leading all of Division I in tempo at nearly 90 possessions per game. Cornell is the polar opposite, ranking as one of the most deliberate teams in the nation at 62.9 possessions per game. VMI relies on a trapping defense to create turnovers, so the Big Red will need to take care of the ball. Princeton played VMI in the BCA Classic, holding off a late Keydet rally to claim a 73-68 win. The winner of tonight’s contest will face either Jacksonville State or hosts William & Mary in the championship game tomorrow night.
Pomeroy says: Cornell 96, VMI 91
Princeton (4-1) vs. North Dakota State (3-2) – 6:30 pm ET
Princeton braved a Midwestern blizzard to travel to Milwaukee for Marquette’s Pepsi Blue & Gold Classic. In addition to the Tigers and eighth-ranked Golden Eagles, the tourney field includes a dangerous North Dakota State squad and an NCAA Tournament team from last season in Northwestern State. Princeton opens against the Bison, who most college basketball fans remember from their upset at Wisconsin last season. Far from the Division III patsy one Princeton alumnus mistakenly believed it to be, North Dakota State is 3-2 this season, including a narrow 85-81 loss at Texas Tech. Last year the Bison went 16-12 as a Divison I Independent — including four wins over Top 200 teams — so Princeton figures to have its work cut out for it.
NDSU has been very good offensively this season (1.06 points per possession) and likes to push the tempo (98th nationally in pace of play), so this should be another intersting battle of contrasting styles. One encouraging sign for the Tigers is the 37.7 percent that Bison opponents are shooting from three-point range on the season. The Tigers’s four wins are over teams with a combined 5-18 record against Division I competition, so this should be a step up in class. A win gives Princeton a five straight victories plus a shot at Marquette and the sort of upset Tiger fans have been craving for years now.
Pomeroy says: North Dakota State 52, Princeton 51
Full Saturday slate
Saturday will see seven Ivy teams in action, with games spread out throughout the day.
Yale (1-4) at Wagner (1-5) – 2:00 pm ET – Gametracker
Yale will look to earn its first Division I win of the season when the Bulldogs ferry to Staten Island to face Wagner. Brown and Yale are getting an early jump on this travel partner thing, as the Seahawks are coming off a 66-61 home loss to the Bears on Tuesday. For Wagner, this is the middle game of a three-game swing through the Ivy League that ends with an interborough showdown at Columbia on Tuesday. For Yale, it’s an opportunity to show that Wednesday’s 0-fer at the three-point line was a fluke, as they’ll be playing a team allowing opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from the arc on the season. Someone will walk away with their second win of the season, and if you read his postgame quotes after the Holy Cross loss, you know Ross Morin really wants it to be his team.
Pomeroy says: Yale 73, Wagner 70
Harvard (3-3) at Colgate (3-2) – 2:00 pm ET – Live Stats
The Crimson will look to climb over .500 with a win at Colgate. The Raiders, however, have won three of four, with the only loss coming in overtime to Canisius. This one figures to have minimal flow and feature fouls and free throws galore, as Colgate ranks third nationally in free throw frequency, while Harvard is seventh. However, the Crimson has been excellent at keeping opponents off the line, while the Raiders are only average in that department. Harvard will need to a do a better job of defending the three-point arc than it has at times this season, as Colgate is shooting the lights out from three at 40.6 percent as a team. For the sake of comparative scores, Colgate faced Dartmouth earlier this season, defeating the Big Green 55-43 in Hanover.
Pomeroy says: Harvard 74, Colgate 85
Sacred Heart (2-4) at Columbia (4-2) – 2:00 pm ET – Live Stats
The Lions need to right the ship after consecutive disappointing performances dropped their record to 4-3 on the season. Since beginning the series back in 2002, Columbia and Sacred Heart have played some thrillers, with three of the four games going down to the wire and Columbia winning three straight. The Pioneers come into the contest with a 2-4 mark, though two of those losses were at North Carolina and UConn. Dave Bike’s team plays at a fast tempo (72.2 possessions per game) and defends rather poorly (1.08 points per possession), so this one could be high-scoring. The Pioneers are having problems inside without graduated big man Kibwe Trim, allowing opponents to rebound at 44.3 percent offensively and to shoot 52.4 percent from inside the arc. This could be a game where John Baumann gets back on track and, along with Ben Nwachukwu, carries the load for Columbia.
Pomeroy says: Sacred Heart 70, Columbia 74
Villanova (5-1) at Penn (4-2) – 7:00 pm ET – Live Stats
As we discussed in Inside the Ivy, this is a major opportunity for the Quakers to earn a marquee win. They lost a close one to Villanova last year, as a furious late rally came up just short. Like Penn, the reloading Wildcats have looked alternately impressive and vulnerable this season. The first two games in Syracuse showed that Brian Grandieri doesn’t have the quickness to defend athletic, major conference shooting guards, so Glen Miller is going to have to figure out how to compensate for this. There aren’t many chinks in the Villanova armor statistically (1.110 points per possession offensively, 0.89 defensively), with the possible exception of the 36.4 percent opponents are shooting from three. If Penn is to have a shot at the upset, it’s going to have to knock down its threes and find a way to keep the Wildcats (40.7-percent three-point shooting) from going off from deep and having their way inside.
Pomeroy says: Villanova 78, Penn 64
Quinnipiac (2-3) at Brown (2-5) – 7:00 pm ET – Quinnipiac audio (free)
Brown dropped its home opener in lackluster fashion to Army last week, so Craig Robinson will look to earn his first win in his home gym when Quinnipiac comes calling. The Bobcats are 2-3, including a respectable seven-point loss at Connecticut in the season opener. However, Quinnipiac has struggled with its consistency, beating Lehigh easily, then dropping a home game to a previously winless New Hampshire squad. Points may be at a premium in this one as both teams have have had offensive problems this season (0.86 offensive efficiency for Quinnipiac, 0.85 for Brown). It will be a battle of tempo, as the visitors like to get out and run (72.2 possessions per 40 minutes), while the Bears like to slow things down (58.4 possessions per 40 minutes).
Pomeroy says: Quinnipiac 53, Brown 51
