The rumor mill has been working overtime lately with the Temple coaching search and the domino effect that could result from that hire. With newspapers disagreeing about what has or will take place as far as meetings and interviews, it’s tough to know what to believe. Here’s a common sense look at where things stand and where they’re headed.

In today’s Daily News, Mike Kern reports that Fran Dunphy “said he did not talk with Temple officials earlier this week as was reported.” I’d love to see Dunphy’s actual quote, because it’s possible he was being deceptively specific in saying “earlier this week.” To believe that Dunphy has not discussed the position whatsoever with Bill Bradshaw, who is widely reported to be a friend and — last we checked — is a “Temple official” requires an unreasonably high amount of naivete.
Odds that Dunphy hasn’t discussed the position at all with a Temple official: one percent

In this morning’s Schenectady Gazette, Siena beat writer Steve Amedio wrote that Dunphy “told friends that he has accepted the Temple job.” The claim of an announcement as soon as Friday didn’t pass the smell test, however, as Temple still reportedly has an interview scheduled with Rick Brunson on Saturday in Houston. The meeting with Brunson is probably — and almost certainly — nothing more than a courtesy interview, but if he did sign some clandestine contract already, it’s very hard to imagine Dunphy telling anyone about it, even his closest friends.
Odds that Dunphy has accepted an offer from Temple and both parties are keeping it under wraps: 20 percent

If an offer hasn’t yet been extended to Dunphy, it’s very likely on the way. He’s Bradshaw’s guy, has a great track record at Penn, and the sell to the boosters and alumni just got even easier with Penn’s near miss in the NCAA Tournament. As far as the other candidates, Bobby Gonzalez of Manhattan is the only realistic alternative to Dunphy. Bruiser Flint has picked up some big endorsements — among them Bill Cosby and ESPN.com’s Andy Katz — but between Temple’s front row seat for the nosedive a thriving UMass program took under Flint, and his lack of NCAA Tournament appearances at Drexel, Bradshaw probably won’t be hiring the Philly native. Temple assistant Dan Leibovitz reportedly had been doing most of the day-to-day duties for John Chaney the last couple of years and former Temple assistant Dean Demopoulos has been assisting Nate McMillan in the NBA, but both are longshots to replace their former boss. And despite support from Chaney and fellow Owl greats Aaron McKie and Eddie Jones, Brunson isn’t going to be taking over a program like Temple without a day of coaching experience.
Odds that Temple will offer Dunphy the job: 95 percent

With the Temple position will come a salary around double what Dunphy is currently making at Penn. And he would be coaching a program with excellent facilities, strong institutional support, and as much tradition as any anyone in the Northeast. Beyond all that, however, the biggest thing that would make this job more attractive to Dunphy than the one he was offered at his alma mater two years ago is the simple fact that the ceiling is just that much higher at Temple than it is at La Salle. If and when the offer does come, it’s going to be very, very difficult for Dunphy to turn it down and remain at Penn.
Odds that Dunphy will accept an offer from Temple: 80 percent