Columbia Trendspotting

The numbers: 5-2 overall, 163rd RPI, 158th Sagarin, 233rd Pomeroy
The recent results: won 61-59 at Sacred Heart, lost 67-66 to Army, lost 83-71 at Wagner
The upcoming schedule: Lafayette (4-4) on Saturday 12/10

Déjà vu
If Columbia fans feel like they’ve been here before, it’s because they have. Last year. And the similarities are uncanny. Gaudy record from close games against weak opposition largely at home? Check. (5-2 this year, 6-2 last year) Disheartening home loss to a bad team? Check. (Army this year, Stony Brook last year) Blowout loss on the road against a local team in the first real test? Check (Wagner this year, Hofstra last year.) It’s even a power forward consistently putting up big scoring totals again this year. And don’t look now, but Columbia is playing in the Holiday Festival at Madison Square Garden again this season.

So more of the same?
Superficial similarities aside, the Lions had several deficiencies from last season that needed to be addressed. The biggest problem last year was a habit of giving opponents easy points by putting them on the line. Only six teams in Divisioin I allowed more free throw attempts per game than Columbia in 2004-05, which accounted for over 25 percent of its opponents offense. There is only marginal improvement to report in that department this season, with this year’s squad ranking 279th at keeping opponents off the line. The other area of concern was turnovers. Columbia ranked 322nd in turnover rate last year, so Joe Jones has elected to slow down the offense dramatically. Last year Columbia ranked slightly above average in pace of play at 152nd. This year they’re near the bottom at 288th. It appears to have worked, as the turnover rate now ranks 128th. Unfortunately, Lion opponents have also cut down on their turnovers, dropping Columbia from 93rd to 324th in turnovers forced. One key difference from last season is an improvement in offensive efficiency as a result of better shooting, particularly inside the arc.

Sophomores leading the way
Beyond the numbers, one of the key differences between last year and this year is the simple fact that the Class of 2008 is a year older. A quarter of the way into the season, Columbia’s top three scorers are all sophomores. John Baumann has seemlessly filled Matt Preston’s big shoes at power forward, averaging 14.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. After a rough season opener, Ben Nwachukwu has come on strong, scoring in double figures in all six games since, en route to averages of 12.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per contest. The biggest surprise has been Justin Armstrong, who played just two minutes all last season. Armstrong ranks third on the team in scoring at 10.3 points per game and has hit some huge shots in pressure situations early on. With others doing the scoring, point guard Brett Loscalzo has been able to run the offense and take the open three-pointer when it comes his way. Loscalzo is shooting 46.2 percent from the arc and has an impressive 26-10 assist-turnover differential.

Matsui heating up
Problems on the defensive end will ultimately limit his playing time this season, but freshman K.J. Matsui has found his touch from the outside. The Tokyo native started his college career just 4 of 17 (23.5 percent) from three-point range, and saw his minutes dwindle to just nine at Sacred Heart. However, in the last three games he is 7 of 11 (63.6 percent) from the arc to raise his season percentage to 39.3. Matsui led Columbia with 14 points in Tuesday’s loss at Wagner, and will move into the role of top perimeter threat with Dalen Cuff out of commission.

Medical report
As previously reported, senior captain Dalen Cuff’s foot injury is expected to keep him out of action until the start of Ivy play next month… Mack Montgomery missed the first three games after having a sore knee scoped, and has had trouble getting it going, shooting just 2 of 9 (22.2 percent) from the arc and 6 of 17 (35.3 percent) overall… Highly touted freshman Joe Bova continues to be sidelined by a back injury.

Jake Wilson

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, Basketball U.

Jake Wilson wrote 754 posts

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