Friday, March 17 – 9:50 pm ET
American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX
Television: CBS (region by region) – Craig Bolerjack (play-by-play) and Bob Wenzel (color)
Internet video: March Madness On Demand (free)
Radio: 88.5 FM WXPN (Philadelphia)
Internet audio: PennAthletics.com
The Tale of the Tape (national ranking)
| Penn | Texas | |||
| 20-8 | W-L | 27-6 | ||
| 98 | RPI rank | 8 | ||
| 97 | Sagarin rank | 4 | ||
| 103 | Pomeroy rank | 6 | ||
| 65.9 (234) | Possessions per game | 67.3 (178) |
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The breakdown
Style of play
Neither team really gets out and runs, and both play at a similar, moderate tempo. This also might be the matchup between the two shortest benches in the Field of 65, as both teams figure out go seven deep during the competitive portion of the game.
At Penn’s end
Despite shooting very poorly from the arc as a team (31.8 percent), only 64 Division I teams take a higher percentage of their field goal attempts from three-point range than Penn’s 37.6 percent. The Quakers figure to have a tough time getting looks from three, as Texas has held opponents to 32.4-percent shooting from the outside. Penn has fared much better inside the arc, ranking 23rd in the nation in two-point field goal percentage (52.8 percent), but Texas is sixth in the nation defensively in that department, giving up just 41.5-percent shooting. And Fran Dunphy shouldn’t count on his guys getting to the line, as only ten teams in the nation do a better job of keeping opponents off the free throw line than Texas. The only thing working in Penn’s favor offensively is the fact it minimizes turnovers (19.7 percent turnover rate), while Texas is mediocre when it comes to forcing turnovers. Rick Barnes has been a man-to-man guy most of his career, but he has resorted to a lot of 2-3 zone this year. Penn has had big problems against zones the last month, so this isn’t a promising development for the Quakers.
At Texas’s end
When the Longhorns have the ball, we’ll see a battle between one of the top offenses and one of the better defenses around. The Texas offense ranks fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Penn’s defense is eighth in efficiency. The Quakers have defended very well inside the arc this year, holding opponents to 44.3-percent shooting on two-point attempts, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a Longhorn squad that is shooting 51.4 percent inside the arc on the season. Penn’s one defensive weakness this year has been the 37.6 percent opponents have shot from three-point range. Texas ranks 46th in the nation in three-point percentage at 38.0 percent, and if Dunphy zones or the Quaker guards leave their men to help out inside on the Longhorn big men, Texas can make them pay with the three-pointer. The biggest defensive challenge for Penn will be keeping Texas off the offensive boards. The Longhorns rank seventh nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at a lofty 41.0 percent, while Penn is 110th in defensive rebounding at 69.3 percent. Texas’s biggest challenge will be to hold on to the ball. Dunphy’s team has uncharacteristically forced a lot of turnovers — specifically, a great many steals — this year and ranks eighth in Division I in opponent turnover percentage, while Texas is slightly above average at taking care of the ball at 111th nationally in turnover percentage.
Stat to watch
Second-chance points. Penn has been a below-average offensive rebounding team, while Texas ranks as one of the elite teams in the nation on the boards. The Quaker big men are giving up a couple of inches, 10 to 15 pounds, and a decided edge in athleticism to their Longhorn counterparts. If the second-chance points end up something like 24-6 in Texas’s favor, the game will be a blowout. If Penn can keep this stat relatively even, it will have a shot at keeping it close.
How Penn can win
With the exception of the 46-43 loss at Texas A&M, all of Texas’s defeats this season have one common thread: defensive breakdowns. In the five losses not in College Station, the Longhorns gave up an average of 87.0 points on 67.2 possessions (1.30 points per possession). In those games, opponents shot 50.5 percent overall and a torrid 51 of 106 (48.1 percent) from three-point range, while turning it over on just 13.8 percent of their possessions. Mark Zoller, Eric Osmundson, and David Whitehurst all have been wildly inconsistent from the outside this season. If two of them are hitting from long range on Friday and Penn can ride their hot shooting hands and limit its mistakes while playing solid defense like it did against Duke and Villanova, the Quakers could have a chance to join the ranks of Richmond (1991), Santa Clara (1993), Coppin State (1997), and Hampton (2001) as 15-seed shockers.
Our call
Outside of drawing UConn, this is about as bad a draw as Penn could have received. Texas is talented, athletic, balanced, and will play in front of a home crowd in Dallas. Penn has surprised positively this year both times it was expected to get blown out, but that streak figures to end on Friday. 72-48 sounds about right, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Brad Buckman have big games inside and Daniel Gibson picks his spots for some big buckets.
