Two weeks and day until the tip off of the Big Dance, so with Cornell on the precipice of locking up the Ivy League’s automatic bid to the tournament, it’s time to start the Seed Watch.

This year’s edition of the Seed Watch is both simpler and more complex, as the Big Red’s current parking spot on the S-Curve (mid-to-upper 40s) is located on the fringe of the at-large zone. Thus, it’s easier in that all of the conference tournaments involving regular season champions currently slotted on the 14-16 lines are irrelevant (an upset there only replaces a team already below Cornell with another team below the Big Red), while the ones on the 13 line are only vaguely relevant. What becomes more complex, however, is determining where Cornell falls among the last teams in from an extremely weak bubble lot.

First let’s start with the 14 conference tournaments (with current leaders in parentheses) that should remain irrelevant unless the Big Red falls during the league’s final weekend:

America East Conference (Stony Brook)
Atlantic Sun Conference (Lipscomb)
Big South Conference (Coastal Carolina)
Big Sky Conference (Weber State)
Big West Conference (UC Santa Barbara)
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Morgan State)
Northeast Conference (Quinnipiac)
Ohio Valley Conference (Murray State)
Patriot League (Lehigh)
Southern Conference (Wofford)
Southland Conference (Sam Houston State)
Southwestern Athletic Conference (Jackson State)
Sun Belt Conference (Troy)
The Summit League (Oakland)

The following two conference tournaments have regular season leaders who would likely be close to Cornell on the S-Curve, making them potential enemies:

Mid-American Conference (Kent State)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (Siena)

That leaves 14 conference tournaments where the Big Red has allies that could bump it up the S-Curve. Any upset winners of these conferences not otherwise in at-large consideration would grab a bid and a seed below Cornell and take one away from an at-large team that possibly would have been seeded above the Big Red. The enemies in each conference are listed in parentheses for all conferences except those with more than four teams who potentially would fail to help Cornell by capturing the title.

Atlantic 10 Conference
Atlantic Coast Conference
Big 12 Conference
Big East Conference
Big Ten Conference
Colonial Athletic Association (Old Dominion, William and Mary, VCU)
Conference USA (UAB, UTEP, Memphis)
Horizon League (Butler)
Missouri Valley Conference (Northern Iowa, Wichita State)
Mountain West Conference (New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State)
Pacific 10 Conference (California, Washington, Arizona State)
Southeastern Conference
West Coast Conference (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s)
Western Athletic Conference (Utah State, New Mexico State)

UPCOMING GAMES (E=Enemy)

March 3, 2010
None

March 4, 2010
None

March 5, 2010
Northern Iowa (E) vs. Drake/Southern Illinois
Wichita State (E) vs. Missouri State/Evansville
VCU (E) vs. Delaware

March 6, 2010
Butler (E) vs. UW-Milwaukee/Cleveland State
Old Dominion (E) vs. Towson/UNC-Wilmington
William & Mary (E) vs. Drexel/James Madison
Siena (E) vs. Loyola-Maryland/Manhattan

AUTO BID S-CURVE

61-65 (16s)
Stony Brook
Quinnipiac
Lipscomb
Lehigh
Jackson State

57-60 (15s)
Morgan State
UC-Santa Barbara
Troy
Coastal Carolina

53-56 (14s)
Weber State
Wofford
Oakland
Sam Houston State

52 (13s)
Murray State

45-51 (12/13s)
Kent State
Cornell
Siena
Utah State
At-Large (1)
At-Large (2)
At-Large (3)