A pair of upsets at the buzzer — the first meaningful conference tournament upsets in two years as far as Ivy representatives are concerned — freed up a 13 seed. However, the selection committee has five teams with resumes in the same general ballpark vying for that seed and for placement along the 14 seed line. Due to the adjustments that happen when putting the bracket together, we’ll never know how the committee ends up placing these teams on the s-curve, but here’s an idea of the decision facing them.

Penn’s chances of jumping up to a 13 seed are on the line today, as it needs two upsets in the America East, Atlantic 10, or MAC tournament finals. There’s a chance Houston could end up below the Quakers on the s-curve, but a win at Memphis probably would be enough to keep that from happening. Elsewhere, Long Beach State has jumped ahead of Penn in the RPI, so root for Cal Poly to spring that upset in the Big West final as well.

Thursday was a terrible day for Penn opponents, as Fordham, Villanova, Syracuse, and Saint Joseph’s all went down. It also didn’t produce much in the way of helpful upsets, as Sam Houston State was the only beneficial loss — and TAMU-CC is the team to beat in the Southland anyway. Friday brings the Patriot League final, and Penn fans may as well root for Bucknell, because Holy Cross absolutely is ahead of the Quakers on the s-curve, while Bucknell at least could be up for debate. A couple of late-night games would give Penn some security in the event of upsets.

A 14 seed is looking increasingly likely for Penn, as its hopes now rest on a darkhorse pulling multiple upsets to win a conference tournament in Conference USA or the MAC. In the meantime, the Quakers can root for an RPI boost from former opponents winning in their tourneys. However, a big blow occurred yesterday when UTEP blew a lead and lost to Rice, which meant a black mark on Penn’s resume with a loss to a team outside the RPI Top 200.